4.00pm Wednesday. Coffee from 3.45 pm, CREEM

Christian Ewald, Economics, University of St Andrews

“The conflict over parental care: A game theoretic analysis on aspects such as cooperation, benefit and welfare for the young”

In this talk we address various issues which arise in the classical parental care conflict, which have, should or could be modeled with game theoretic models. After a brief summary of fundamental concepts in game theory, aspects such as cooperation, benefit and welfare consequences for the young will be put into a game theoretic context and various models will be discussed. These models have been developed in joint work with John McNamara and Alasdair Houston.

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Monday 26 November, Lecture Theatre D 4.00 p.m. Mathematical Institute, University of St Andrews

Professor Geir Storvik, University of Oslo (visiting University of Bristol)

Posterior Predictive p-values in Bayesian Hierarchical models

Checking a chosen model is an important part of a statistical analysis. Within the Bayesian framework this could also include checking the prior. The class of posterior predictive p-values has become a much used tool for checking the model, but can be conservative. Within hierarchical models, standard posterior predictive p-values can be extended in different ways. In this talk I will discuss different alternatives and explore their properties in some simple examples. I will further discuss methods for calibrating such p-values to become uniformly distributed under the model assumptions, a property useful for interpretation. In situations where the calibration is based on the prior assumptions, this transforms the posterior predictive p-values to prior-predictive p-values. Some results from real examples will also be presented.

This talk will very much be based on joint work with Gunnhildur Steinbakk, Nils Lid Hjort and Fredrik Dahl at the University of Oslo

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7:30-8:30pm. Room D 502 (Clement’s House, 5th Floor) LSE

Jeremy Leggett, CEO of Solarcentery
Climate Change meets Peak Oil

“One of the key players in putting the climate issue on the world agenda” -Time Magazine
Outside the current White House and a dwindling band of contrarians who have now lost even their funding from ExxonMobil, climate change is perceived as a dire threat, Many at the top of the business world now accept it can wreck the global economy if left unmitigated.
Peak oil - the prospect of an unexpected topping point in global oil production within the next few years - is a related but different problem. Only a minority, though a growing and authoritative one, believe it is a significant threat. If they are right, however, this problem is also capable of wrecking the global economy, so oil-addicted have we allowed it to be become.

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In the CREEM seminar room. Coffee from 3.45pm

Catriona Stephenson, CREEM
Testing mechanistic models of seed dispersal for the invasive Rhododendron ponticum

Rhododendron ponticum is a serious invasive alien plant in the British Isles and is of considerable conservation and economic concern. While optimal control strategies for single individuals and small stands of R. ponticum are well described, effective regional control of the plant demands an improved understanding of its spatial dynamics, in particular its dispersal ecology. I will describe the results of two field experiments designed to quantify the dispersal pattern of R. ponticum seeds: 1. controlled release over a few seconds at known windspeeds and 2. natural release over the peak dispersal period. We then use these results to assess the potential use of two different mechanistic wind dispersal models (WINDISPER and WALD) as descriptors of seed dispersal ecology for this species.

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Yes, I am still alive. For those who are interested in my latest geekery they can check out my journey (with Fearghas and his iPhone) from St Andrews to London last weekend. The moblog of the roadtrip is here.

Additionally, I’ve decided to start posting the abstracts from seminars I’ve been to here (as much for me to remember as any other reason.)

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